Recently, Cinda Securities has been on"Post-epidemic recovery+New Material Breakthrough ", the theme of everyone's concern, produced" Oil ".RefiningIndustry Research, which reports on the post-epidemicEngineering plastics, high-performance resin materials, degradable plastic products and new energy materialsThere is a detailed analysis, because the original text is as long2More than ten thousand words,Yujie IndustrialSpecial excerpts are as follows for industry reference.

2021Since 2002, with the continuous increase of the double carbon policy, large refining and chemical enterprises have become the mainstream trend of the development of the petrochemical industry by "reducing oil and increasing chemical", reducing carbon, reducing carbon and efficiency. The stock capacity has been reduced through the conversion of new and old kinetic energy, energy-saving management, and optimization of public works. The incremental capacity has been deeply transformed by product system adjustment such as "reducing oil and increasing chemical" and energy structure adjustment, stock and incremental capacity changes together drive the industry into a stage of rapid transformation and development.2022Year over5600The 10,000-ton refining and chemical project was put into operation,2023Year and beyond are expected to have1billion tons/In the construction or planning of large refining capacity around the year, the 14th Five-Year Plan will usher in the peak of production. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China will continue to promote oil refineries to "reduce oil and increase oil". It plans to divide refineries into three categories: large, medium and small, and evaluate their ability to develop the chemical industry downstream. Experts believe that the focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan" petrochemical industry plan is to eliminate small production capacity, integrate oil refining indicators, build refining and chemical integration projects with longer processes, higher operating rates, and more diversified products, and improve China's petrochemical production. Efficiency, reduce the waste of oil products in the production process, and "eat dry and squeeze out" resources ".

In this context,2022After the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures at the end of the year, residents' travel and consumer demand are expected to be gradually released. On the occasion of the post-epidemic recovery, the major private refining enterprises in advance layout, further extend the petrochemical downstream industrial chain layout, enhance the value-added properties of products, which are more typical, including polycarbonate, nylon.66Polyoxymethylene as the representative of engineering plastics; polystyrene,ABSas a representative of high-performance resin materials;PBAT/PBSDegradable plastic products representedEVA,POELithium-electric diaphragm as the representative of new energy new materials products.

High performance+Lightweight, engineering plastics development prospects

The advantages of engineering plastics are outstanding, and the refining and chemical industry chain is extended again. Engineering plastics are plastics that can be used as structural parts of electromechanical products under high mechanical stress, high operating temperature and harsh physical and chemical environmental conditions. Compared with general-purpose plastics, engineering plastics can achieve higher requirements in terms of mechanical properties, durability, corrosion resistance, and heat resistance. They have convenient processing and can replace metal materials. The upstream raw materials of engineering plastics mainly come from petrochemical products and chemical raw materials. The main raw materials of engineering plastics such as olefins, aromatic hydrocarbons, phenol, acetone, etc. are important products in the downstream of refining and chemical industry. Large refining and chemical enterprises can effectively digest bulk petrochemical products through the layout of engineering plastic products, Realize the diversified development of the industrial chain. Engineering plastics have a wide range of downstream applications, mainly covering the automotive, electronic and electrical appliances, aerospace and machinery manufacturing and other fields, of which automotive, electronic and electrical appliances account for the proportion of engineering plastics downstream consumption.73%.

Engineering plastics have excellent performance and rich categories, effectively realizing multi-scene applications. Engineering plastics can be divided into two categories: general engineering plastics and special engineering plastics. General engineering plastics mainly include polycarbonate, polyoxymethylene, polyamide, etc., and special engineering plastics mainly include polyphenylene sulfide, polyether ether ketone, etc. Different types of engineering plastics have different properties. Among them, general engineering plastics are mainly used in the fields of automobiles, machinery and metal substitution, while special engineering plastics have more prominent functional characteristics, and have more prominent advantages in high temperature resistance and flame retardancy. It can be widely used in aerospace, microelectronics, medical and other fields. High performance and lightweight promote engineering plastics to achieve metal substitution. Compared with metal materials, engineering plastics have excellent properties such as high protection level, high elasticity coefficient, corrosion resistance, high light transmittance and good insulation. At the same time, the proportion (relative density) of engineering plastics is generally0.83To2.2It is much smaller than the proportion of steel and aluminum materials, and has obvious advantages in the lightweight application of materials. Taking the automotive industry as an example, engineering plastics are mainly used in bumpers, fenders, fuel tanks, dashboards and other body and interior related parts. According to the data of China Automotive Engineering Research Institute, if the car can achieve weight reduction10%, then the fuel savings can be achieved6-8%The wide application of engineering plastics is of great significance to the energy saving and emission reduction of automobiles. On the other hand, engineering plastics can replace expensive non-ferrous metals and alloy materials, and the wide application of engineering plastics reduces auto parts, assembly costs and maintenance costs. In terms of actual usage, the total amount of engineering plastics in China's automobiles is only32kg/vehicles, compared to Europe and the United States and other countries.70kg/There is still a large room for improvement, the future with material research and development and formula modification and other technologies to further develop, engineering plastics product performance will be more adapted to the actual scene needs, to promote the further substitution of metal materials, downstream application coverage breadth or will continue to improve.

On the polycarbonate side, the supply side, we think.2023year or will usher in a period of concentrated production capacity,2024-2026Annual supply-side growth is expected to slow. On the demand side, we believe that the homogenization characteristics of domestic low-end products are obvious after the release of production capacity, while high-end products still need to rely on imports, and there is still room for import substitution in the industry. Nylon66On the supply side, along with the raw material hexanedinitrile constraints to break, domestic nylon66The rapid expansion of production capacity layout, the industry supply pressure highlighted. On the demand side, we believe that downstream engineering plastics consumption is expected to maintain steady growth, but due to the rapid release of the industry supply side, the industry may face greater supply pressure. In the field of resin materials and degradable plastics:ABSOn the resin side, the supply side, we believe2022-2025Year with the industry's new capacity concentrated release, the industry supply or tend to ease,ABSDownstream is mainly used in the field of home appliances, in recent years, the growth rate of home appliance consumption has slowed down, the main consumption increment may come from the policy-driven new round of home appliances to the countryside and smart home appliance penetration,ABSConsumption remains supportive, but industry supply and demand may be easing compared to the rapid release of capacity.

New consumer trends, resin materials and biodegradable plastics go hand in hand

According to whether the plastic degradable characteristics, can be divided into degradable plastics and non-degradable plastics, according to the raw material division, can be divided into petroleum-based type and bio-based type of plastic. Among the petroleum-based types, polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), PVC (PVC), polystyrene (PS) and acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene terpolymer (ABS) is a five-purpose synthetic resin material, which is also a non-degradable plastic; andPBAT,PBSIt is also generated from petrochemical raw materials and can be degraded, and is a common degradable plastic product. On the supply side of degradable plastics, according to Baichuan Yingfu data,2022After the year, the biodegradable plastics industry has a large influx of new capacity, supply release or will speed up. On the demand side, the demand for degradable plastics mainly comes from the substitution of traditional plastics, we believe that, driven by the policy of "plastic limit order" to "plastic ban order", the demand side of degradable plastics is still supported, but the demand side is incremental or not the rapid growth of production capacity, the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry will gradually appear. Refining enterprises diversified layout, to meet the market multi-type consumer demand. Large refining enterprises to refining downstream products as raw materials, through the layout of new materials and high-performance resin products, to further extend the industrial chain, in addition to the common polyethylene, polypropylene and other polyolefin products, but also the layout ofABSand new material products such as polystyrene. In terms of resin materials, Hengli Petrochemical has laid out60million tonsABScapacity,15Tons of polystyrene (PS) capacity, which contains7.5Tons of general-purpose polystyrene (GPPS) and7.5Tons of high impact polystyrene (HIPS); Rongsheng Petrochemical total layout of160TonsABSCapacity. In terms of degradable plastics, Hengli Petrochemical has also developed petroleum-based degradable plastic products, includingPBSDegradable plastics45Ten thousand tons, modifiedPBATPlastic8Ten thousand tons, Dongfang Shenghong has planned18million tonsPBATClass degradable plastic production capacity, Rongsheng Petrochemical planning.20million tonsPBSClass degradable plastic production capacity. Refining enterprises diversified layout, effectively meet the needs of all kinds of plastic use scenarios, broaden the company's performance growth space.

In the field of new energy materials: lithium-electric diaphragm, supply side, we expect2022-2023The annual lithium-electric diaphragm production capacity will usher in a high-speed release phase,2024Annual capacity growth may slow. Demand side, we believe that with the further intensification of market-oriented competition of new energy vehicles, overlay charging piles and other supporting facilities to further improve, new energy vehicle consumption will continue to maintain high-speed growth, lithium-electric diaphragm supply will be effectively digested, industry supply and demand or will maintain a tight balance.EVAIn terms of our globalEVAPV from new capacity and global PV installationsEVAdemand measurement, we expect2022-2023Global PV inEVASupply and demand are basically in a tight balance,2024-2025With the further release of industry capacity, PVEVAThe pattern of supply and demand may shift from tight balance to loose.POEOn the other hand, there is no large-scale production capacity in China, and with the continuous improvement of photovoltaic installed capacity, the penetration rate of the superimposed double-glass module continues to grow,POEThe market is expected to continue to open, the domestic alternative space is vast.